National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920pm EDT Monday July 1 2024
...New
Issued at 920pm EDT Monday July 1 2024
Current-Overnight...The ECSB continues to make steady progress inland this evening, though with the warmer temperatures aloft, we have only observed isolated convection. The threat for ISOLD-SCT showers and lightning storms continues into mid-late evening across the interior, as we do feel there will be some later boundary collisions (west of Orlando). As convection winds down later this evening and overnight, expect mainly dry conditions - though we may have to monitor for some onshore moving activity late overnight toward sunrise Tuesday morning across Martin (perhaps St. Lucie) County. The SERLY (southeasterly) winds behind the sea breeze will diminish and become light S/SSE. Sky conditions will be PCloudy. Muggy overnight lows in the M- U70s areawide forecast.
.PREVIOUS Issued at 345pm EDT Monday July 1 2024
Thru Tonight...The east coast sea breeze is pushing slowly inland, sparking isolated showers and storms behind the boundary near the coast. Additional storms should lift north from south FL into interior Martin/St Lucie counties. A late collision with the west coast breeze is still forecast across the north interior around sunset resulting in scattered storms (50-60% coverage) and these should linger into the late evening. A tongue of drier air remains across the north seen on GOES-16 PWAT (Precipitable Water) product and late morning Cape sounding measured warm H5 temps of -4.7C so this may limit storm coverage and intensity. A quiet, muggy overnight is forecast with mins in the mid to upper 70s.
Tue-Wed... (modified) A weak frontal boundary near the FL-GA border will dissipate and allow the surface ridge axis to lift north of the area. Strong mid level ridge over the deep South will build heigheights over FL increasing subsidence/drying aloft and this will gradually reduce coverage of diurnal convection. Focus for showers and storms will initially be near the coast sparked by the inland moving sea breeze during the late morning/early afternoon. transitioning to the interior sections late in the day. Scattered (~40%) coverage expected near the coast with 50-60% coverage interior. Max temps in the low to mid 90s is at or slightly above normal but the high dewpoints/humidity will produce maximum heat index readings of 102-107. Pockets of Major HeatRisk will creep into areas north of Interstate 4, indicative of unusually hot and humid conditions even for Florida, and partly driven by overnight low temperatures running 4-7F above normal.
Thu-Next Weekend (previous)... Heat-related impacts will drive the weather story for this timeframe, along with at least scattered (30-60%) storm chances. Our weather will continue to be dominated by the strong upper high, characterized by H5 heigheights exceeding the 95th percentile of climatology. H85 temperatures rise to around +20C. Boundary layer flow will remain southeast early in this period before subtly veering toward the south late in the weekend. This will continue to draw high humidity out of the tropics, with dew points in the mid 70s F.
Statistical guidance continues to suggest widespread mid 90s over the interior and low/mid 90s along the coast. Peak heat indices are forecast to range from 102-107F for the Fourth of July and Friday before climbing toward 104-109F next weekend. A Heat Advisory (108F) may be warranted for at least some of this timeframe as we get closer in time, especially considering the number of residents and visitors who will be spending time outdoors. Planning to enjoy our beaches, attend holiday celebrations, or visit area attractions? Make sure to pack the water and sunscreen, and expect to need some time in the shade, A/C, or pool!
Much of the troposphere will remain warmer than normal, contributing to relatively poor mid-level lapse rates. Through Saturday, the southeasterly flow should hold the higher storm chances over the interior (50-60%), with lesser coverage (30-40%) along the coast. Storm chances may creep up late in the weekend as the flow veers southerly and mid-level temperatures dip slightly.
Marine
Issued at 345pm EDT Monday July 1 2024
The Atlantic ridge axis draped across central Florida today will lift north of the local waters by midweek allowing dominant wind flow to be from the SE becoming enhanced (10-15 knots) each afternoon near the coast behind the sea breeze. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast primarily overnight and morning hours over the open Atlantic and morning to early afternoon over the intracoastal waters. The summer doldrums are here with seas 2 FT or less through Tue, then up to 3 FT offshore through Friday. Intracoastal and inshore boaters will notice a light to moderate chop behind the sea breeze each afternoon.
NOAA Melbourne FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None.
